British intelligence in a fresh review on Tuesday analyzed the situation and the chances of success of the Russian army in the area of Vugledar and Pavlivka.
As noted, over the past three days, Russia has likely developed its reconnaissance attacks around the cities of Pavlivka and Vugledar into a more coordinated offensive.
These settlements are located 50 km southwest of Donetsk, and Russia already used the 155th Marine Brigade to storm the same area last November. Elements of the 155th Brigade are now deployed again as part of a force of at least a brigade. Probably, the Russian forces advanced several hundred meters beyond the small Kashlagach river, which for several months represented the front line.
The Russian command probably aims to develop a new axis of attack on the Ukrainian-controlled territory of the Donetsk region and distract Ukrainian troops from the Bakhmut region, where fierce battles are taking place, the summary says.
There is a real possibility that Russia will continue to win local victories in this sector, according to British intelligence. However, it is unlikely that Russia has at its disposal sufficient free troops in the area to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough.