The inability of the defense industrial base to overcome the shortage of ammunition will hinder the ability of the Russian military to support offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023.

 This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

 Analysts note that according to statements by American and Ukrainian officials on January 10, the daily intensity of artillery fire by the occupiers has decreased by 75%, which is the lowest figure since February 24, 2022.

 The ISW report suggested that Russian forces may have reduced their shelling as a result of reduced supplies or may be reconsidering their tactics. After all, they exhausted their reserves of 122 mm and 152 mm caliber and other reserves in the summer of 2022, assuming that excessive artillery attacks would lead to faster results.

 "The Russian Federation must now transfer additional projectiles from the rear areas and purchase additional ammunition from foreign countries in order to counteract such a shortage, which will lead to a decrease in the rate of fire," experts point out.

 The Institute for the Study of War adds: "In Russia, it is increasingly recognized that fundamental problems, such as shortages of ammunition and the inability to provide troops, seriously hinder the conduct of offensive operations."

 ISW Key Findings:

 The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced on January 11 that the Chief of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, will assume the position of commander of the occupation forces as part of a large-scale reshuffle of the Russian command structure for the war in Ukraine.

 Gerasimov's appointment is likely intended to support Russia's planned decisive military effort in 2023, likely in the form of resuming offensive operations.

 The promotion of Gerasimov and the Russian Ministry of Defense over Surovikin, a favorite of Prigozhin and the Siloviki faction, was very likely partly a political decision to restore the primacy of the Russian Ministry of Defense in the internal struggle for power.

 The inability of the Russian defense industrial base to solve the problem of ammunition shortages is likely to hinder the ability of Russian forces to sustain offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023.

 The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyі, once again stated that the resumption of the Russian offensive operation by Belarus remains unlikely.

 Russian forces have not captured Soledar, despite recent advances.

 Russian President Vladimir Putin is reported to have secretly pardoned Russian convicts who fought as part of the Wagner PMC, potentially further allowing mercenaries to operate with impunity at the front.

 Russian troops continued limited counterattacks near Svatovo, while Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensives near Kreminnaya and struck the rear of the Luhansk region.

 Russian troops conducted ground strikes along the entire front line in Donetsk region.

Ukrainian officials said Russian forces were withdrawing key assets and restructuring logistics networks in southern Ukraine due to the Ukrainian strikes.