The British Ministry of Defense predicts that Russia will continue to obstruct the initiative on the eve of the next expiration of the "grain agreement".
This is stated in the intelligence review of the British Ministry of Defense on June 9.
The Black Sea grain initiative was extended for 60 days on May 17, 2023. However, British analysts say, Russia almost certainly continues to impede grain exports by deliberately slowing down inspections and actively blocking some vessels.
Currently, only one to two vessels are inspected per day, compared to six to eight in the fall of 2022.
"Russia is probably trying to get concessions on the issue of resuming the operation of the Tolyatti-Odesa pipeline, which exports ammonia from Russia through the territory of Ukraine through Odesa. The situation has been complicated by the fact that the pipeline has been damaged in recent days and is still not working," the British Ministry of Defense stated. .
Russian rhetoric and obstruction of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is likely to continue in the weeks leading up to the next deadline for an extension, British analysts predict. So far, the "grain corridor" is valid until July 16, 2023.
It will be recalled that in mid-May, despite Russia's threats to withdraw from the agreement, the Black Sea Grain Initiative was extended for another two months.
Later it became known that Kyiv can allow the transit of Russian ammonia through Ukrainian territory if it receives guarantees from Russia and the UN that the Black Sea Grain Initiative will work without obstacles.